A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
