The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to the US capital to confer with US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the first in-person meeting between the two leaders following months of escalating tensions and sharp exchanges.
Agenda for Talks
Venezuela, narcotics trade, oil, regional stability, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are expected to be high on the agenda when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.
A History of Tensions
While the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation after a recent American action, Petro has since stated he believes there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier commented that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often criticised repeated US strikes on suspected drugs boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the White House's immigration policies.
"His stance shifted," the US President reportedly stating prior to the Washington talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to stop the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives across the region.
However, the hostility appeared to subside after a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to improve."
Regional Stability and the ELN
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long border.
Much of that frontier is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, established in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, smuggling, and illegal mining in frontier regions and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US firms engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt investment plans by targeting international businesses and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Drug War Collaboration
An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global largest producer of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a halt on intelligence sharing with US security agencies following comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, including the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a analyst. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also undermine all enforcement efforts."
Potential Outcomes
Despite several areas for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the outcome of the talks could impact the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable situation," said a regional expert. "A positive outcome takes the air out of opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favor."
